Rent-a-Win

Welcome back to ‘The Samson Report’. Thanks to everyone who provided comments to my last report. Keep it coming!

Before we get to Middle Tennessee, I thought I’d share one last quote from last week:

"Virginia Tech went to da bayou Saturday night to show it belonged among college football's elite. Instead, it showed it belonged to the ACC."
-Bob Lipper - Richmond Times Dispatch

Now, let’s get to it…

LSU vs. Middle Tennessee St.
September 15, 2007
Death Valley, Baton Rouge
7 pm - Tigervision

Point spread:
LSU (-41)
(This is the biggest spread I can remember for LSU)

Know your foe:
Head Coach – Rick Stockstill
The MTSU Blue Raiders had to share the Sun Belt title last year, but they were considered to be the best team in that league. They made it to the Motor City Bowl, where they lost to Central Michigan. This year, they are expected to win the Sun Belt outright. The offense, led by quarterback Joe Craddock, exploded for 42 points last week against #9 Louisville. MTSU runs a spread offense.

Week 1: Lost to Florida Atlantic 27-14
Week 2: Lost to Louisville 58-42

Will Flynn Get In?
If you don’t already know, Matt Flynn has a slight ankle sprain. Don’t worry, it’s nothing serious. However, if I were Miles, Flynn would watch the game from the coach’s box next to Crowton. I don’t even know if that’s allowed, but it would be a great way for Crowton and Flynn to bond. Give the rock to #11 this week. Perrilloux needs the game experience. He needs a week of practice as the #1 guy. He needs to know what it’s like to prepare as a starter. He needs the chance to win over his teammates and the fans. This week is the time to do those things and develop the young talent at all positions. I expect to see a lot of young guys in the game giving us a sneak peak of next year’s team. The #3 QB is Andrew Hatch, a transfer from Harvard. He was impressive in camp allowing highly touted freshman Jarrett Lee to redshirt this season.

MTSU Offense vs. LSU Defense:
Some people say defense is boring. Those people have not seen LSU. This week, LSU will continue to impress. All of MTSU’s offensive production will come in the second half against our 2’s and 3’s. Craig Steltz will see limited action due to a minor injury (turf toe). LSU Dominates! End of story!

LSU Offense vs. MTSU Defense:
We need to see continued improvement from the offensive line, especially the right side. I expect Crowton to keep the game plan very basic and a little more run oriented. I hope we get to see a lot of Richard Murphy and Terrance Tolliver. It will be interesting to see the philosophy of the new offensive staff. Will we run up the score or call off the dogs?

Special Teams:
I don’t have any solid information, but I expect Early Doucet to hand over his punt return duties to Jared Mitchell and/or Chad Jones. Early is too valuable to lose. We needed his sure hands, but I think he was given directions to fair-catch everything last week. This week, I think you’ll see more returns from the young guys. Also, can any of our kickers get the ball to the goal line?

Key to the Game:
Does the LSU team bus make it to Death Valley on Saturday night? If so, we’ll be ok.

Game Prediction:
Ok, let’s not sugar-coat this thing. It’s going to be brutal. We can break-down each position and over-analyze each team, but the simple fact is that LSU’s 3rd team could probably beat MTSU straight up. So, let’s keep it simple. LSU rolls to an easy victory behind the arm of Ryan Perrilloux. MTSU collects their $510,000 paycheck and heads back to the smokies. This is the most unappealing game on LSU’s schedule so I would expect the team and the fans to be a little flat. If we can get some young guys in the game and we are injury free, I’ll be happy. I’ll take LSU-55, MTSU-10.

The Pistol:
No, not Pete. This is the name of the new formation that LSU has been utilizing on offense. It’s like the shotgun, only shorter. The quarterback lines up about 3 yards behind the line instead of the usual 5. This provides more run options out of a passing formation. So far so good.

Did you know?
- MTSU punted only once last week in their offensive slugfest with Louisville
- Last year, MTSU scored on 33 of 36 red zone attempts. That’s an amazing 92%

Week 3 Games of the Week: (Predicted Winners in Bold)

(22) Tennessee @ (5) Florida
(16) Arkansas @ Alabama
(1) USC @ (14) Nebraska
(21) Boston College @ (15) Georgia Tech
(10) Ohio St. @ Washington

Irrelevant Game of the Week:
Notre Dame @ Michigan: HaHaHa, we’re still laughing at you!

Upset Special:
(9) Louisville @ Kentucky:
This rivalry game will be very interesting to watch. Neither team plays very good defense, but both can light up the score board. Many people think the top two QB’s in the country play in Kentucky. Andre Woodson for Kentucky (6’-5”, 230) and Brian Brohm for Louisville (6’-4”, 226) are big, accurate QB’s that will go high in the April draft. Rivalry games are so hard to predict, but they are fun to watch. Just a hunch, but I think this game goes into overtime. Go Cats!

Lock of the Week:
Florida (-8)

We’re #1:
If it were released today, the BCS poll would have LSU at #1 according to the analysts at BCSguru.com. By tabulating unofficial weekly standings, they have been very accurate at picking the order of the BCS poll in past years. Last week, USC was #1. The official poll will not be released until October 14th.

The King Receives His Crown:
Later this afternoon, “Rosco” will shed his former identity and officially be named Mike VI. Welcome to the LSU nation Mike VI. You will undoubtedly reign over the most successful era in LSU athletics history. May your dynasty be long, and your roars loud.

Looking Ahead:
CBS has exercised their six day option for the LSU-South Carolina Game. That means they won’t announce what game they will televise @ 2:30 in week 4 until this Sunday. The other option is the Georgia-Alabama game. If Alabama beats Arky this week, CBS will probably pass on the LSU-USC game. ESPN-2 would jump on it for a 6:45 start.

New Look:
LSU will sport a new look when they face Tulane in Week 5. White helmets, purple jerseys, and white pants. In addition, the jerseys will feature pelicans on the shoulders as a tribute to New Orleans (see pic in right column). I believe they are doing this to raise money for the Hurricane Katrina Relief Fund. I guess it’ll be ok just this once.
Also, this will be an 11am start so I guess we’ll have to do our partying after we slaughter the greenies.

Good Luck Lisa:
The countdown is on. Charlie, good luck with all those girls. You’ll need it.