9-10-09: Washington Recap. Vanderbilt Preview.

9-10-09: Washington Recap. Vandy Preview.


The Stats:

Score:

LSU - 31
Washington - 23

Rushing / Passing / Total Offense:

LSU – 149 / 172 / 321
Washington – 157 / 321 / 478


WARNING: What you are about to read is an honest, objective, analysis of the Washington game. I’m not going to pour on the pessimism, nor am I going to spew a million excuses. Those who are expecting, and hoping for, a Les lashing should probably stop reading now. However, if you’re a logical and sensible follower of college football…read on.

I don’t want to sound like a complete homer, but I feel that I cannot follow the lead of the local media and the sentiments of the LSU fan base. After re-watching the game twice, all I want to say is “CALM DOWN PEOPLE!!” What you witnessed on Saturday night was in no way alarming. Washington had a huge emotional advantage in this game and it showed. They made LSU look a little flat, but the Tigers still found a way to win. That’s what good teams do.

The defense looked bad. No question about it. LSU gave up 478 yards on defense and 25 first downs. Washington was 11/19 on 3rd down and 1/1 on 4th. LSU didn’t even force a single 3-and-out series. But I’m not going to define the defense by the manner in which they play this game. Remember, Bo Pelini had a similar rough start when he arrived. Re-watch the game and you’ll see the scheme wasn’t bad. A few well-timed screen plays and some horrible tackling really hurt LSU. LSU got great pressure in the backfield all night.

One thing to be concerned about is the defensive ends. LSU lost containment several times. Many times, the defensive ends would intentionally take a skinny route to the backfield, leaving the end wide open for the linebacker to step up and take the lead blocker. This puts more pressure on the cornerback to shed blocks and make plays. As we saw, Hawkins struggled with this on the defensive left side. On the right side, Petterson sheds blockers as if they weren’t there, and this is why most of the big plays this season will be on Hawkins. I think Jai Eugene may be a better fit at this position because of his physicality, not coverage skills.

I think we can all agree that the LSU offense performed well. The Tigers averaged more yards/play than Washington but only ran 48 plays compared to Washington’s 83. The offensive game plan was very simple. This was done to give Jefferson a better chance to have a good game. Right now, it’s not about racking up huge stats. It’s about getting Jefferson comfortable in this offense. The playbook will surely open up, and become more balanced, as the season progresses. The down side to this approach is that it makes it much harder to get into a rhythm and drive the ball down the field. This means more pressure is put on the defense since they’re on the field longer.


Quick Hits:

Special Teams looked good, except for the punter. Helton needs to step it up.

Patrick Peterson is the best cornerback I’ve ever seen at LSU. He was making plays all over the field.

LSU played a very disciplined game. Very few penalties. (3 for 35 yards, 15 of which was on a bad call)

LSU did not have any injuries, although Pep Levingston may be slightly hurt.

Jefferson wisely threw the ball away on several occasions. Were you watching Jarrett Lee?

Oops…

Charles Scott had a rare fumble. Can’t do that in a close game.

Richard Dickson dropped a touchdown pass in the endzone.

Ciron Black had a costly penalty on 3rd and goal from the 2 yard line. However, Jordan Jefferson messed up the snap count.

Terrance Tolliver dropped a pass for a first down.

Final Thoughts:

It wasn’t pretty, but LSU still rolled out of town with a W. Furthermore, the game was never in doubt. Not 1 single time did I think LSU would lose that game. To the fans who flipped out during the game, please be aware that your lack of football knowledge and perspective showed big time. Keep your heads about you people. The sky is not falling. However, if we do not see steady improvement in the next few weeks, feel free to freak out as much as you want. I’ll be right there with you!

Game Balls:

Jordan Jefferson: 11/19 for 178 yards, 3 TD, 0 int. Very good game.
Jacob Cutrera: 5 tackles and 29 yard pick 6.
Patrick Peterson: 9 tackles and many great plays.
Terrance Tolliver 4 catches for 117 yards, 2 TD

Honorable Mention: Keiland Williams, Drake Nevis

Needs improvement:

Les Miles/John Chavis: Coach better.
Derrick Helton: Punt better.
Chad Jones: Tackle better.
Chris Hawkins – You need to learn how to shed a block. Teams are going to start picking on you if you don’t get better at this.


Oh Les…

Lester, why did you call timeout before halftime? This bonehead move gave Washington 2 extra plays and they turned that into 3 points. That was dumb!


Whack Stat:
Washington rolled up nearly 300 yards in the first half. That’s Whack!!


Never Again:
I’ll never listen to another broadcast by Mark Jones and Bob Davie. This has got to be the worst broadcast team ever assembled. Great job ESPN.



VANDERBILT PREVIEW:

Vanderbilt @ (11) LSU
Baton Rouge, LA
6 pm
ESPN U


Point Spread:
LSU -14.5


Head Coach:
Bobby Johnson


Record: 1-0
Week 1: Defeated Western Carolina 45-0


Know thy Foe:

Vanderbilt is historically the bottom dweller of the SEC East. The worrisome thing about Vandy is that they always seem to have at least one big SEC upset per season. Last season, Vandy won 5 games as underdogs. Since 2005, the Commodores have beaten 4 SEC teams that were double-digit favorites.

Vanderbilt always starts off the season strong. For example, last season they started 5-0, but finished the season 6-1. The reason they do this is because they’re not able to recruit depth due to their academic standards. Since they typically start strong, LSU better not come out flat for this one. Furthermore, they return 18 starters from last season in which Vanderbilt won their first bowl game in 53 years against Boston College.

The strength of the Vandy offense is the run game. Last week they had two rushers with over 100 yards. The starting quarterback is Mackenzi Adams and he runs a lot of no-huddle offense. Therefore, Chavis better get the plays in quick this week. Mackenzi Adams is not a great quarterback so don’t expect to see him go all Jake Locker on the LSU defense.

Vanderbilt has a decent defense led by a very good linebacker corps which has an All SEC linebacker and a Freshman All-American linebacker. Like last week, LSU will be able to move the ball IF they balance out the rushing/passing plays.


Game Prediction:

Vanderbilt has only had 2 winning seasons in my lifetime, however, don’t let that fool you into believing LSU will win this game with ease. The Tigers will need to play very good football to beat the Commodores.

My prediction: 31-20


Flyover:
If you’re going to the game, don’t be late. If you’re late to your seats, you may miss the flyover which is scheduled for pregame this weekend. Keep your eyes to the north since they usually fly north to south.


Games of the Week: (Predicted winners in CAPS)

Clemson @ GEORGIA TECH (Thursday night)
South Carolina @ GEORGIA
Notre Dame @ MICHIGAN
USC @ Ohio St.


Lock of the Week: (0-1)
Fla International (+34) @ Alabama


See you next week! Geaux Tigers!!

THURSDAY ! THURSDAY!

THURSDAY!!


Now that the season has started, The Samson Report will be making the switch to Thursday morning.

2009 Season Preview / Washington Preview

9/2/09: 2009 Season Preview / Washington Preview


Strike up the band…its game week! I don’t know about you, but it was a lot easier getting out of bed this week. I’ve got an extra bounce in my step and I can’t stop watching highlight videos on youtube. If this season doesn’t start soon, I may need an intervention.

Since I’m a week behind, I’ll preview the entire season and then I’ll preview the Washington game. I’ve already written about the new coaches, the new players, and the depth chart; so now it’s time to talk about the schedule and make some dangerous predictions. Of course, these predictions are subject to change and immune to hindsight criticism.

Here’s the Schedule:

Week 1: @ Washington
Week 2: Vanderbilt
Week 3: ULL
Week 4: @Mississippi St.
Week 5: @ Georgia
Week 6: Florida
Week 7: OFF
Week 8: Auburn
Week 9: Tulane
Week 10: @ Alabama
Week 11: LA Tech
Week 12: @ Ole Miss
Week 13: Arkansas

LSU’s schedule sets up perfectly for a young, developing QB. We’ve got 4 relatively easy games leading up to our first real test. However, the SEC gauntlet waits in week 5. Any unanswered questions must be answered before we leave town for Athens. After the UGA game, the Tigers will return home to prepare for seemingly the biggest game of the season against Florida. While this is not true, the hype for this game will be huge. LSU’s off week comes in week 7 this year. The timing of this off week can be good and bad. Good because we’ll need the rest after two tough weeks. Bad because the team will want to get back on the field quickly if they suffer a loss to Florida. After the off week, LSU’s remaining tough games are a little more spread out, and not nearly as intimidating as 4 consecutive SEC games. Road trips to Tuscaloosa and Oxford will decide the SEC West. Now, let’s take a closer look at some of the more intriguing games of the season.

Up first are the Washington Huskies. This game is extremely similar to LSU’s first road game in 2003 when the Tigers traveled to Pac 10 Country to play Arizona and put a beat down on the Wildcats, 59-13. Like ‘Zona in ‘03, Washington is a team on the rise, but they’ve got a lot of rising to do before they can compete with LSU. LSU will once again be in redemption mode after a disappointing season. I look for this game to be dominated from the first whistle. LSU will be very impressive and the fan base will be buzzing with optimism. While this optimism should be tempered by a little rationality, the impressive performance will be undeniable.

The next game of note is against Georgia. The Dawgs are going to look a lot different this season without Stafford and Moreno. I really feel that this game will be an eye opener to the country that LSU is a very strong team; DAMN strong as some might say. Even if they don’t win, LSU can make a strong statement that they are a contender. This game will set the tone for the season.

LSU and Florida could easily enter the game on October 10th undefeated. Either way, this game will certainly receive a tremendous amount of hype. At this point, most people think Florida will win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this attitude changes as we get closer to game time. I definitely think LSU has a good chance to win, but if we lose it won’t be the end of the world. If we take care of business against teams in the west, we’ll get another shot at the Gators in Atlanta.

Auburn is down right now, no doubt due to the rise of Alabama. They’ll be debuting a new coach in Gene Chizik. I’m not sure that this hire was right for Auburn, so I don’t see any significant improvement in this program for at least 5 years. They’ll give LSU a good game, as they always do, but LSU should win this game with relative ease.

Tulane is a joke, and if LSU would revoke the 10 year football contract, Tulane athletics would probably go the way of their engineering program. Down the tubes. I don’t think it should be LSU’s responsibility to pass out welfare checks to all of the smaller state schools. By the way, did you notice that we play 3 of them this year? I don’t like it.

Alabama. Oh Baby! This is the game that I have circled as the biggest game of the year. If you don’t know what the stakes are for this game, then you haven’t been paying attention. This is a must win if we want to have a great year instead of a good year.

No, I didn’t forget about Ole Miss. I know that they’ve been the trendy pick to win the SEC West. Well I’m not buying it. Despite having a good QB, a good coach, decent talent, and a favorable schedule, the Rebels have not yet earned their place at the top. They don’t know what it’s going to be like to have a target on their backs. The last time they were in this position, they fell flat on their face. Or should I say, Manning fell flat on his back. The good news is that Houston Nutt has Ole Miss relevant again. The bad news is that they will not be overlooked by anyone this season. To be fair to the Runts, they do have an outside chance to go to Atlanta this season for the 1st time. Don’t look for it to happen though.

The Arkansas game from last year still has me pissed. However, LSU’s defense will not have another melt down this season and LSU should win this one, although it’ll be a tough one as usual.

Every indication from practice is that this team is vastly improved in areas that tripped up the Tigers in ’08. The problems have been fixed. Specifically, the play of QB’s Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee has improved significantly since they left the Georgia Dome. Also, the defense has its swagger back. No more crazy substitution packages, no more out-of-position defensive backs, no more easy defensive reads for opposing offenses, no more mismatches, no more Mallory, no more Peveto.

Maybe I’m an eternal optimist, or maybe I’m viewing the world through my gold colored glasses, but I have big expectations for this team. By most people’s estimation, there is as much talent on this team as there has ever been at LSU. The coaching staff is greatly improved. The quarterbacks are more experienced. Senior leadership is back. The “MOJO” has been positive during the offseason and LSU is still benefiting from positive momentum created in the Chick-fil-a bowl win.

I’m going to go out on a limb here… LSU will win 11 games this season. No, I’m not drunk. Here me out. The tigers will split the Georgia/Florida games and they’ll split the Alabama/Ole Miss road games. LSU will win all of the games that they “should” win. Therefore, my prediction is 10-2 for the regular season. Time will tell if this will be good enough to play Florida in the SEC Championship game. If they do, this could be the most watched game of the entire season for any team. Instant classic. A blowout bowl win, which has become a Miles trademark, will put the win total at 11. This will generate the perfect blend of pre-season hype that LSU will need to make a run in 2010.

Bowl Possibilities:

I’m almost sure that we’ll see an SEC team in the National Championship Game in Pasadena. This leaves the Sugar Bowl as a very possible destination for an at-large SEC team or an SEC Championship loser. If I had to guess now, I’ll put LSU in the Sugar Bowl against Oklahoma St.

Now, let’s look at the game on Saturday…

(11) LSU @ Washington
Husky Stadium
9:30 PM
ESPN

Point Spread:

LSU (-17.5)


Head Coach:

Steve Sarkisian (1st season as UW head coach, former OC at USC)



Know thy Foe:

Washington did not win a single game last season, and they have lost an amazing 21 of their last 23 games. They have not had a winning season since 2002. The 2008 Huskies are the only team in Pac-10 history and the only team in the country to finish the season without a single win. However, this program has already hit rock bottom and they’re moving up. With new HC Steve Sarkisian, the Huskies could be a very respectable team by the time they make the return trip to Death Valley in 2012.

The Huskies return their starting QB Jake Locker, who is a very good quarterback. He compares favorably to Vince Young. He is big and mobile. Locker is very dangerous if he has running room. LSU will need to be very quick to the ball when they see him tuck and run, which will happen a lot. I think he’ll be the leading rusher for U-Dub. The key to stopping Washington is to make Locker one-dimensional and make him put the ball in the air. His passing stats shouldn’t be great but they’ll be respectable. One thing is clear; the Huskies will not line up and move the ball on LSU with any consistency. Washington may even try a few trick plays to catch LSU off guard. In fact, I’m calling for a halfback pass back to the quarterback, probably sometime in the first quarter.

Rain is forecasted for the game Saturday, so I think that favors Washington slightly (although the field is not a grass turf, it is field turf). However, that may be the only thing that favors the Huskies. Usually I do an in-depth comparison of the LSU defense vs. the UW offense and vice-versa. However, such a breakdown is completely unnecessary for this game. Suffice to say that, on paper, LSU is far and away the dominant team. Once the game is secured, LSU should use this opportunity to get a lot of players on the field. I have a few true freshman that I’ll be looking for.


Game Prediction:

Tigers win big. The game will be out of reach by the middle of the 2nd quarter. After halftime, LSU experiments with a few new players and this will allow Washington to make the score respectable. Unfortunately, this big win will fly under the radar nationally. Everybody in the country who went to sleep in the first quarter will see the score in the paper Sunday morning and not realize that LSU could have won by many more points.

LSU – 38
Washington – 14


Games of the Week: (Predicted Winners in CAPS)

LA Tech @ AUBURN (-13) (Sunday game)
Georgia @ OKLAHOMA STATE (-5.5)
Virginia Tech vs. ALABAMA (-7)


Lock of the Week!

LSU (-17.5)


Upset Special!

None this week.


Whack Stat!

Washington has NEVER played a Div. II team.