2009 Season Preview / Washington Preview

9/2/09: 2009 Season Preview / Washington Preview


Strike up the band…its game week! I don’t know about you, but it was a lot easier getting out of bed this week. I’ve got an extra bounce in my step and I can’t stop watching highlight videos on youtube. If this season doesn’t start soon, I may need an intervention.

Since I’m a week behind, I’ll preview the entire season and then I’ll preview the Washington game. I’ve already written about the new coaches, the new players, and the depth chart; so now it’s time to talk about the schedule and make some dangerous predictions. Of course, these predictions are subject to change and immune to hindsight criticism.

Here’s the Schedule:

Week 1: @ Washington
Week 2: Vanderbilt
Week 3: ULL
Week 4: @Mississippi St.
Week 5: @ Georgia
Week 6: Florida
Week 7: OFF
Week 8: Auburn
Week 9: Tulane
Week 10: @ Alabama
Week 11: LA Tech
Week 12: @ Ole Miss
Week 13: Arkansas

LSU’s schedule sets up perfectly for a young, developing QB. We’ve got 4 relatively easy games leading up to our first real test. However, the SEC gauntlet waits in week 5. Any unanswered questions must be answered before we leave town for Athens. After the UGA game, the Tigers will return home to prepare for seemingly the biggest game of the season against Florida. While this is not true, the hype for this game will be huge. LSU’s off week comes in week 7 this year. The timing of this off week can be good and bad. Good because we’ll need the rest after two tough weeks. Bad because the team will want to get back on the field quickly if they suffer a loss to Florida. After the off week, LSU’s remaining tough games are a little more spread out, and not nearly as intimidating as 4 consecutive SEC games. Road trips to Tuscaloosa and Oxford will decide the SEC West. Now, let’s take a closer look at some of the more intriguing games of the season.

Up first are the Washington Huskies. This game is extremely similar to LSU’s first road game in 2003 when the Tigers traveled to Pac 10 Country to play Arizona and put a beat down on the Wildcats, 59-13. Like ‘Zona in ‘03, Washington is a team on the rise, but they’ve got a lot of rising to do before they can compete with LSU. LSU will once again be in redemption mode after a disappointing season. I look for this game to be dominated from the first whistle. LSU will be very impressive and the fan base will be buzzing with optimism. While this optimism should be tempered by a little rationality, the impressive performance will be undeniable.

The next game of note is against Georgia. The Dawgs are going to look a lot different this season without Stafford and Moreno. I really feel that this game will be an eye opener to the country that LSU is a very strong team; DAMN strong as some might say. Even if they don’t win, LSU can make a strong statement that they are a contender. This game will set the tone for the season.

LSU and Florida could easily enter the game on October 10th undefeated. Either way, this game will certainly receive a tremendous amount of hype. At this point, most people think Florida will win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this attitude changes as we get closer to game time. I definitely think LSU has a good chance to win, but if we lose it won’t be the end of the world. If we take care of business against teams in the west, we’ll get another shot at the Gators in Atlanta.

Auburn is down right now, no doubt due to the rise of Alabama. They’ll be debuting a new coach in Gene Chizik. I’m not sure that this hire was right for Auburn, so I don’t see any significant improvement in this program for at least 5 years. They’ll give LSU a good game, as they always do, but LSU should win this game with relative ease.

Tulane is a joke, and if LSU would revoke the 10 year football contract, Tulane athletics would probably go the way of their engineering program. Down the tubes. I don’t think it should be LSU’s responsibility to pass out welfare checks to all of the smaller state schools. By the way, did you notice that we play 3 of them this year? I don’t like it.

Alabama. Oh Baby! This is the game that I have circled as the biggest game of the year. If you don’t know what the stakes are for this game, then you haven’t been paying attention. This is a must win if we want to have a great year instead of a good year.

No, I didn’t forget about Ole Miss. I know that they’ve been the trendy pick to win the SEC West. Well I’m not buying it. Despite having a good QB, a good coach, decent talent, and a favorable schedule, the Rebels have not yet earned their place at the top. They don’t know what it’s going to be like to have a target on their backs. The last time they were in this position, they fell flat on their face. Or should I say, Manning fell flat on his back. The good news is that Houston Nutt has Ole Miss relevant again. The bad news is that they will not be overlooked by anyone this season. To be fair to the Runts, they do have an outside chance to go to Atlanta this season for the 1st time. Don’t look for it to happen though.

The Arkansas game from last year still has me pissed. However, LSU’s defense will not have another melt down this season and LSU should win this one, although it’ll be a tough one as usual.

Every indication from practice is that this team is vastly improved in areas that tripped up the Tigers in ’08. The problems have been fixed. Specifically, the play of QB’s Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee has improved significantly since they left the Georgia Dome. Also, the defense has its swagger back. No more crazy substitution packages, no more out-of-position defensive backs, no more easy defensive reads for opposing offenses, no more mismatches, no more Mallory, no more Peveto.

Maybe I’m an eternal optimist, or maybe I’m viewing the world through my gold colored glasses, but I have big expectations for this team. By most people’s estimation, there is as much talent on this team as there has ever been at LSU. The coaching staff is greatly improved. The quarterbacks are more experienced. Senior leadership is back. The “MOJO” has been positive during the offseason and LSU is still benefiting from positive momentum created in the Chick-fil-a bowl win.

I’m going to go out on a limb here… LSU will win 11 games this season. No, I’m not drunk. Here me out. The tigers will split the Georgia/Florida games and they’ll split the Alabama/Ole Miss road games. LSU will win all of the games that they “should” win. Therefore, my prediction is 10-2 for the regular season. Time will tell if this will be good enough to play Florida in the SEC Championship game. If they do, this could be the most watched game of the entire season for any team. Instant classic. A blowout bowl win, which has become a Miles trademark, will put the win total at 11. This will generate the perfect blend of pre-season hype that LSU will need to make a run in 2010.

Bowl Possibilities:

I’m almost sure that we’ll see an SEC team in the National Championship Game in Pasadena. This leaves the Sugar Bowl as a very possible destination for an at-large SEC team or an SEC Championship loser. If I had to guess now, I’ll put LSU in the Sugar Bowl against Oklahoma St.

Now, let’s look at the game on Saturday…

(11) LSU @ Washington
Husky Stadium
9:30 PM
ESPN

Point Spread:

LSU (-17.5)


Head Coach:

Steve Sarkisian (1st season as UW head coach, former OC at USC)



Know thy Foe:

Washington did not win a single game last season, and they have lost an amazing 21 of their last 23 games. They have not had a winning season since 2002. The 2008 Huskies are the only team in Pac-10 history and the only team in the country to finish the season without a single win. However, this program has already hit rock bottom and they’re moving up. With new HC Steve Sarkisian, the Huskies could be a very respectable team by the time they make the return trip to Death Valley in 2012.

The Huskies return their starting QB Jake Locker, who is a very good quarterback. He compares favorably to Vince Young. He is big and mobile. Locker is very dangerous if he has running room. LSU will need to be very quick to the ball when they see him tuck and run, which will happen a lot. I think he’ll be the leading rusher for U-Dub. The key to stopping Washington is to make Locker one-dimensional and make him put the ball in the air. His passing stats shouldn’t be great but they’ll be respectable. One thing is clear; the Huskies will not line up and move the ball on LSU with any consistency. Washington may even try a few trick plays to catch LSU off guard. In fact, I’m calling for a halfback pass back to the quarterback, probably sometime in the first quarter.

Rain is forecasted for the game Saturday, so I think that favors Washington slightly (although the field is not a grass turf, it is field turf). However, that may be the only thing that favors the Huskies. Usually I do an in-depth comparison of the LSU defense vs. the UW offense and vice-versa. However, such a breakdown is completely unnecessary for this game. Suffice to say that, on paper, LSU is far and away the dominant team. Once the game is secured, LSU should use this opportunity to get a lot of players on the field. I have a few true freshman that I’ll be looking for.


Game Prediction:

Tigers win big. The game will be out of reach by the middle of the 2nd quarter. After halftime, LSU experiments with a few new players and this will allow Washington to make the score respectable. Unfortunately, this big win will fly under the radar nationally. Everybody in the country who went to sleep in the first quarter will see the score in the paper Sunday morning and not realize that LSU could have won by many more points.

LSU – 38
Washington – 14


Games of the Week: (Predicted Winners in CAPS)

LA Tech @ AUBURN (-13) (Sunday game)
Georgia @ OKLAHOMA STATE (-5.5)
Virginia Tech vs. ALABAMA (-7)


Lock of the Week!

LSU (-17.5)


Upset Special!

None this week.


Whack Stat!

Washington has NEVER played a Div. II team.