2008 BCS National Championship Game

January 7, 2008
BCS National Championship Game
(2) LSU vs. (1) Ohio St.
New Orleans Superdome
Fox 6:30pm

Point Spread:
LSU (-4)

Once again, LSU will be playing for a national championship inside the Louisiana Superdome. LSU enters the game with 2 losses, a first for the BCS title game. Ohio St. is 11-1. The only loss for the Buckeyes came against Illinois. This will be the third meeting between these two teams and the first in nearly 20 years.

The game will be played in New Orleans. This is a slight advantage to LSU but probably not as much as people think. The crowd inside the dome will be 65-70% LSU fans but OSU will have a good crowd. They travel very well as a fan base. In addition, a lot of the more boisterous LSU fans will be watching this game from home because most of the tickets went to the big money, social tiger fans. I have a lot of issues with the ticket situation but don’t get me started.

LSU is just a 4 point favorite over the vengeful Buckeyes who embarrassed themselves and their conference just one short year ago against the Florida Gators. The Buckeyes were not as bad as they looked. Unfortunately for them, they were not mentally prepared for a team like Florida. They read too many newspapers. Is there a better way to avenge that loss than to beat LSU, another speedy athletic SEC team? I don’t think so. They get a second chance so you can bet they will be entering this game with a different mindset... angry, determined, and disrespected. For this reason, I’ll give the Buckeyes the motivational edge in this game. This is a very important factor in this game because the Bucks have more to lose than LSU. OSU feels like their backs are against the wall and they will come out fighting like rabid dogs. If LSU cannot match their intensity, OSU will bite them in the butt. But make no mistake, LSU will be motivated and focused on winning the National Championship as well. I’m sure Les Miles would love to put a beat down on his arch rival from years past.

LSU will enter the game very healthy for the first time in a very long time. The injuries to Beckwith, Dorsey, Flynn, Holliday, and Williams have had time to heal. OSU has had an additional two weeks to recover and will be in great health as well. Neither team has any contributing players suspended (yet) so that is good news. We’ll see what happens once the teams are let loose on Bourbon St. where it is very easy to find trouble. The LSU team has done the Bourbon St. thing before so hopefully it’s out of their system.

Know thy Foe:
Ohio St. won the BCS National Championship in 2002 against Miami on a very, very controversial pass interference call. Miami seemingly won the game in overtime and started to rush the field before being called for pass interference against an Ohio St. receiver. I have seen the play many times and I think it was a bad call. The defender did not interfere with the receivers’ ability to catch the ball. He just missed it. It was borderline though and it could have gone either way. Ohio St. eventually won that game to upset the Hurricanes. Whoever wins the game this year will be the first 2-time BCS National Champion.

This season, the Buckeyes have played a very back-loaded schedule. It wasn’t until week 9 that they played a team capable of beating them. Overall, their schedule was not as challenging as LSU’s schedule. Of course, not many schools can say that they played a tougher schedule than LSU. The tough schedule and all of the close games will benefit the Tigers during this game.

Head Coach:
Jim Tressel

Week 1: Defeated Youngstown St., 38-6
Week 2: Defeated Akron, 20-2
Week 3: Defeated Washington, 33-14
Week 4: Defeated Northwestern, 58-7
Week 5: Defeated Minnesota, 30-7
Week 6: Defeated Purdue, 23-7
Week 7: Defeated Kent St. 48-3
Week 8: Defeated Michigan St., 24-14
Week 9: Defeated Penn St., 37-17
Week 10: Defeated Wisconsin, 38-17
Week 11: Lost to Illinois, 28-21
Week 12: Defeated Michigan, 14-3
Week 13: OFF
Week 14: OFF

The Speed Myth:
I am getting really tired of all of this speed talk, and I’m an SEC fan. Can you imagine how much the OSU fans must be sick of it? The Big 10 is slow. The SEC is too fast for the Big 10. OSU can’t keep up with LSU. LSU will win with superior speed. Blah Blah Blah. Is it LSU that is disrespecting OSU and the Big 10? No! This myth is being propagated by the talking heads on ESPN. But in this case, perception is reality and OSU will try to take out their frustrations on LSU. Here are the facts… BOTH teams are fast. This is Ohio St. we’re talking about, not Akron. The Buckeyes pull some of the best players every year from across the country. Their position players are very comparable to ours, although their depth may not be. The offensive styles in the Big 10 are very traditional, leading people to believe that they are slow. They don’t spread the ball out as much which showcases the speed of your backs and receivers. Is it true that the SEC may have more overall speed than the Big 10??? Of course, but OSU is the cream of the Big 10 crop. They’ve got the weapons. If we rely on speed to win this game we will be in big trouble. This game will be more about health than speed.

LSU Offense vs. Ohio St. Defense:
Ohio St. has the #1 ranked defense in the country, for good reason. The OSU defense gives up an average of only 225 yards per game. Only 77 of those yards are allowed on the ground while 148 are through the air. The offensive output for LSU is significantly better than that so it should be an interesting match up. The Buckeyes have looked vulnerable to the spread offense and a mobile quarterback (see Illinois game). LSU has both.
Vernon Gholston at the defensive end position will be giving LSU a tough time all night. I don’t think Carnell Stewart will be able to block him by himself. Flynn and Perrilloux must be aware of him and step up in the pocket to make the throws. The strength of the Buckeye defense is the backfield. Malcolm Jenkins and Donald Washington are better cover corners than LSU has seen all season. Passing yards may be tough to come by for the Tigers. James Laurinitis is the leader of the OSU defense at linebacker. He is a good linebacker but I don’t see him having a great game against our offensive style. OSU will need him to cover sideline to sideline and I don’t think that is his style. He’d rather go head to head in the hole than chase you down. Don’t count him out though because he is one of those players who is always around the ball making plays. Hester will have trouble running the ball this game because OSU is used to the pound-it-out offenses of the Big 10. I would like to see Charles Scott get a lot of carries in this game because I think he has better vision than Keiland Williams. OSU is most vulnerable on the outside and the run from the spread formation. They will give up containment. It could be a good night for Holliday if he takes the reverse. On third downs when LSU needs a go-to play, I think Richard Dickson should get the ball. He may have the best hands on the team and he’s a tough runner after the catch. The tight ends will be an important key to this game whether it’s blocking Gholston or releasing for the screen pass.

Flynn or Perrilloux?
The official company line from the athletic department is that Flynn is near 100% and is throwing the ball very well. But I am not completely sold. A lot of people with reliable sources have been reporting that Flynn is not throwing the ball nearly as strongly as he was before the shoulder injury. They are saying that Flynn’s injury is not progressing as fast as they had hoped. Either way, I think we will see a healthy dosage of Ryan Perrilloux. His performance in the SEC Championship game certainly proves that he can be very effective in big games. I hope both guys get a chance to lead the Tigers to a few touchdowns.

LSU Defense vs. Ohio St. Offense:
Ohio St. averages 397 yards of total offense per game. Like LSU, they are very balanced with 200 yards rushing and 197 yards passing.
LSU’s biggest problems have come against mobile quarterbacks. Luckily, Todd Boeckman is built from the same mold as Jamarcus Russel. At 6’-5” and 235 lbs, he’ll run only if he has to and he’s not too good at it compared to a true running QB. Also like Russel, his strength is throwing the long ball. Boeckman relies on his arm and will stay in the pocket all night. He has been inconsistent this season and is prone to interceptions. He has thrown 12 interceptions and 23 touchdowns. Still, he has amassed a 64.5% completion percentage and his pass efficiency rating leads the Big 10 and is 13th nationally. Boeckman has had a pretty good junior season for OSU but his last two games of the regular season were very bad.
Ohio St. has a running back that is one of the best in the country, Chris “Beanie” Wells. He is the very definition of an all-purpose back as he can do it all, and he does it very well. He is the best Buckeye running back since Archie Griffin, the only player in college football history to win 2 Heisman trophies. Wells will be a Heisman candidate next season as a junior. He will run between the tackles all night behind a very big offensive line but probably won’t test the LSU perimeter too much.
The stable of OSU receivers is led by Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline. They really only throw to these two guys though. I don’t know why they don’t utilize other receivers more. Robiskie and Hartline are reliable receivers, but not game changers. They do not strike fear into opposing defenses.

Keys to the Game:

When you get to the red zone, you must score touchdowns. If you settle for field goals, you will lose. OSU has only given up 15 touchdowns this season so it won’t be easy.

Win on 3rd downs, both offensively and defensively. This is kind of a no-brainer but I think there will be a large number of 3rd down plays due to the quality of both defenses. OSU converts 47% of their 3rd down plays while allowing opponents only 31%. This game will be won on 3rd down.

Put pressure on Boeckman. If you give him time to throw the ball he can hurt you deep. If he is constantly under pressure, he doesn’t have the ability to make plays. Hit him in the mouth a few times and get in his head. Force him to make hurried decisions and he cannot perform. He is vulnerable. He is the weakest link and LSU must exploit it.

Game Prediction:
LSU matches up very well with the Buckeyes. The reverse cannot be said about Ohio St. They don’t see spread offenses very much in the Big 10 and their defense is not set up favorably to stop LSU’s multi-faceted attack. Offensively, OSU should be pretty easy to figure out for the LSU coaches. Tressel may even try a few gimmick plays but they probably won’t have much success.
I think Ohio St. will take an early lead and LSU will have to come from behind. Luckily, LSU has done that several times this season. Statistically speaking, LSU will run for 200 yards or so and pass for another 200 thanks to a few big plays. I think the LSU defense will give up lots of yards in the first half. They finally get to Boeckman in the second half and make OSU very one dimensional. Beanie Wells will have a good night rushing for 125 yards or so. Boeckman will pass for 150, mostly in the first half. Total offense for OSU will be around 330 yards.

I’ll take LSU – 30, OSU – 21

Whack Stats:
OSU has scored a touchdown in 138 straight games.

Coaching Change:
As you know, Bo Pellini will lead the LSU defense in the final game even though he is the head coach at another school. Unlike some people, I like this move and I think it will work out for us. Les Miles has not yet hired a D-Coordinator for next season nor has he provided names of possible replacements. However, a lot of people think a deal has been made to bring in John Tenuda. Tenuda is currently the Interim Head Coach at Georgia Tech where he also is the defensive coordinator. He is known to have a complex defense with a lot of blitz packages similar to a Saban style defense. He is a very good coach and I would be very happy if he were at LSU. The only bad thing about him is that he will be taking a head coaching position within the next 5 years. He was a candidate to be promoted to the head coach at Georgia Tech and his name has surfaced for a few jobs like UCLA. I think its good policy to bring in the very best coaches, even though you know they’ll leave. They come in hungry with something to prove and they deliver. Fisher, Muschamp and Pellini will all be head coaches in the near future and they were great coaches while they were here.

Thanks to Buckeye Adam Alber for providing a very good summary of the Ohio St. team.